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January 22, 2010

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J Mearkle, P.E.

Mike,

Given all the scatter in a typical trip generation graph, would you think a multi-variable regression would be more accurate than the usual "trips per 1000 sf" generation rates? For example, could we get more accuracy if we include store size and some measure of exposure, such as AADT or, for walking trips, population within, say, half a mile of the store?

I've only used the trip gen books. I'd be interested in the opinion of someone that has collected some data for them.

Mike

Having a low to zero r-squared value always makes me wonder if the data has any validity. Unfortunately, its the best we have.

CVS gets fresh ADT counts with every site they are considering (this also gives an indirect measure of population). They have thresholds they need to meet for a site to be considered viable.

The sites included were all suburban with low pedestrian activity. I think peds could matter in their urban core stores, but those are a different animal all together.

With pharmacies, I think the variable that would give the highest corollary would be the number of existing pharmacies within a one mile radius. I don't think our profession is excited about going that route though because it would be difficult to use.

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